I'm thinking 8 1/4. Look at the spacing of the bolts. On the 7 1/4 the spacing is different. On the 8 1/4 the spacing between bolts is identical. I'm going by your pics of the axles available.
I don't want to argue with you, but I had a 7 1/4 in my '73 Swinger. Here it is when I took it out:
Look at the shape of the bottom of the cover. Also notice the filler plug in the cover. I know the cover isn't the be all end all, but it doesn't look like the 8 1/4 I put in.