Did you make the assumption that the fuel droplets are all the same size and uniform in weight as they leave the carb and magically turn corners like gasses do?
Let me guess you think a formula can tell you what size droplet the fuel is when it has to travel past the exhaust charge as it travels up the intake port with your magical formula.
Do gasses separate from the air stream and coalesce into pools of liquid in the chamber.......
This is basic physics.......different objects of weight and size travel differently in a pipe. How much of it is a gas and how much of it is still a liquid.......
But I have a formula.