Tornado's and hail here

Things aren't too rosy for saturday, check this out....
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
It says...
SPC AC 231729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR...FAR EAST
TX...LA...MS...AL...TN...FAR SE MO...FAR SRN IL AND WRN KY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS....UPPER MIDWEST...MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY...SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GULF COAST STATES...

...TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS...THE LOWER
TO MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

...OZARKS/LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
A WELL-ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY SATURDAY AS A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING...MODEL FORECASTS QUICKLY
DEVELOP AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. A CLUSTER OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ONGOING IN NE TX AT 12Z SATURDAY ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET. THE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EWD INTO NRN LA AND SRN
AR SATURDAY MORNING WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING EWD ALONG A WARM
FRONT AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN THE TN VALLEY. VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES AS THE MCS AND SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS
ORGANIZE.

CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC SETUP...SEVERAL FACTORS APPEAR TO BE COMING
TOGETHER FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE
KEY TO A TORNADO OUTBREAK SHOULD BE THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS VARY WITH THE GFS FOCUSING THE
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NE LA AND NW MS SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE NAM
FOCUSING THE LOW-LEVEL JET FURTHER SOUTHEAST IN SCNTRL MS. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS BUT AM
FAVORING THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NRN LA...SRN/ERN AR AND WRN/NRN MS
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS SHOULD ALSO EXIST EWD ALONG A WARM FRONT INTO NRN AL AND
SWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MS AND AL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD ALSO HAVE A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

CONCERNING THE TORNADO OUTBREAK SCENARIO...THE THINKING IS THAT A
CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL ORGANIZE NEAR THE SABINE RIVER
IN FAR NE TX AROUND 12Z SATURDAY AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN LA INTO
ERN AR AND NWRN MS BY MIDDAY. THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE MCS TO BE
JUST AHEAD OF AND TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL JET CORE SUGGESTING
THE SETUP COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES AND A
LONG-TRACK TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
CONCERNING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE OUTBREAK
IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SUPERCELLS AND
WELL-DEVELOPED LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

...MID-MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD
INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW
A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN NEB AND IA SWD ACROSS MUCH
OF MO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTING ACROSS WRN MO AND
POSSIBLY FAR NE KS IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET.
DIFFLUENCE AND LIFT NEAR THIS FEATURE COULD ALSO ENHANCE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH SEVERE STORMS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
EVENING. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD DEVELOP IF A
LINE-SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MO AS SUGGESTED BY
THE GFS. IN ADDITION...A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
MORE DOMINANT CELLS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 04/23/2010